Monday, June 15, 2009

UPDATED: Major Happenings In Iran

In short, Iran may be in the beginning of new revolution. They held elections three days ago, and it appears that they were rigged (that nutbag Ahmedinedjad won, even though Mousavi was projected to win). So, there's massive protests all over the country right now. What we know:

Iranian elections were held.
Results seemed really sketchy. Like Florida 2000, but in the entire country except for California and New York sketchy.
The "losers" called for a re-election.
The Big Boss Men in charge said "We'll take a look at it *wink*"
Citizens of all ages threatened to protest.
Gov't said "If you protest, we'll shoot you"
Citizens protested.
Everything was tense, but peaceful.
Eventually a few people got shot, at least 1 dead.
Protesters beat the shooters to death (allegedly).
Other "losers" will give speeches tonight to support the rally.

Amazingly enough, twitter is actually the best place for current info, mainly by a couple of guys: Change_for_Iran, persiankiwi, and StopAhmedi.

You can follow along with stuff here:

The wikipedia entry has a lot of helpful info:

More as I know it. This is a big deal, folks.

There's talk of this picture winning the Pulitzer prize:

It's a protester helping protect an injured riot cop. Wow.

EDIT: Major Update, lots of info

One confirmed dead as police start shooting protestors. here's a REALLY LONG but incredibly useful breakdown of what's going on:

Suppression of Dissent - The Players

Currently, there are two or three groups who are suppressing the students on the ground that you'll read about throughout this thread:

1. The Basij (confirmed)
2. Ansar Hizbullah (confirmed, which I will refer to as Ansar)
3. Lebanese Hizbullah (unconfirmed but highly probable in the mind of Persians, many different independent reports and video point that wa; I will refer to them as Hizbullah)

- The Basij are your regular paramilitary organization. They are the armed hand of the clerics. The Basij are a legal group, officially a student union, and are legally under direct orders of the Revolutionary Guard. Their main raison d'ĂȘtre is to quell dissent. They are the ones who go and crack skulls, force people to participate in pro-regime demonstrations, and generally try to stop any demonstrations from even starting. They are basically located throughout the country, in every mosque, every university, every social club you can think of. They function in a way very similar to the brown shirts.

They were the ones who first started the crackdown after the election but it wasn't enough. While they are violent and repressive, they are still Persian and attacking fellow citizens. A beating is one thing, mass killings another.

- Another group was working with them, who are even more extreme, is Ansar. There is a lot of cross-membership between the Basij and Ansar, though not all members are members of the other group and vice-versa. The vast majority of Ansar are Persians (either Basij or ex-military), though a lot of Arab recruits come from Lebanon and train with them under supervision of the Revolutionary Guard. They are not a legal group, they are considered pretty much a vigilante group, but they pledge loyalty directly to the Supreme Leader and most people believe that they are under his control. They are currently helping the Basij to control the riots, but due to the fact that they are Persians and in lower numbers than the Basij, they are not that active.

- (the following paragraph includes some speculation based on reports from ground zero) Hizbullah flew in a lot of their members in Iran, most likely a good deal even before the elections in case there were trouble. They are the ones who speak Arabs and are unleashing the biggest level of violence on the Persians so far. Another wave arrived recently and there is chatter that yet another wave of Hizbullah reinforcements are coming in from Lebanon as we speak. According to Iranians on the ground, they are the ones riding motorcycles, beating men women and children indiscriminately and firing live ammunitions at students.

The Lebanese Hizbullah is a direct offshoot (and under direct control) of the Iranian Hizbullah (itself under direct control of the Supreme Leader) and cooperates closely with Ansar though Ansar occupies itself only with Iran's domestic policies, while Hizbullah occupies itself only with Iran's foreign policy unless there is a crisis like right now. However, Hizbullah has been called to stop violent riots in Iran in the past.

What will happen

Unless the army decides to intervene in the favor of the Council and to stop the (what now looks like) early beginnings of the new Revolution, Ansar & Hizbullah members will be the ones doing the brunt of the killing and repression with Basij as a support while also protecting government buildings and try to do crowd control. The police seems to have for the most part disbanded in centers like Tehran according to all reports, including international media. If the police decides to come back, they will focus less on protection and crowd control, so the Basij will start to crack more skulls).

Currently, this is what is happening.

note: I built this through both articles and twitter feeds, so I do not claim that this is a 100% factually correct representation of reality, but this is the general narrative.

- When the first spontaneous riots erupted, the first wave the Iranian Riot Police was called in, and short after the Basij also took the scene. The RP concentrated mostly around public buildings and streets while the Basij took position around student groups, especiallly universities.

- As things got more out of hand, more and more Basij troops were called in, as the police started dispersing. The riot police are less inclined (or, rather I should say the Basij are more inclined) to use violence so they retreated and leaving the place to the

- With the second wave of Basij also came Ansar Hizbullah members. This is the point where firearms started being used. There are reports of a few murders but it was mostly fired in the air or on walls in order to scare away protesters in University dorms.

- It's around the time of the second wave that the first reports and videos of an important number of non-Persian thugs shouting in Arabic and violently beating people with chains, clubs and electric batons (similar to cattle prods). The end of the second wave came right before the beginning of the current manifestation. Things were getting quieter with only sporadic reports of dissenters being assaulted. Important to note: at this time. the Supreme Leader has authorized these militias to use live ammunition against the crowd if things get out of hand (source: BBC)

- - This brings us to the third wave, which just began around 12:30PM for those of us on the East Coast. According to all reports, plainclothes militia have opened fire on civilians protesting peacefully. Chaos erupted in the streets, with reports of fighting all over Tehran and spreading over Iran. Pictures of people shot, some to death, surfaced and were published in the mainstream media. Things very are ugly and this is spreading in other cities as well. Violent and murderous repression has started. At least a twenty people have been killed so far. Things will spiral down fast, and very soon.

There is a major crackdown on students, especially those with connections to the outside world going on right now. Some people report that the students are fighting back in some areas. Telephones are being bugged and everyone twittering and sending videos outside of Iran are being rounded up. ISPs were shut down, government hackers are threatening people who twitter, and some of them have vanished in the last 24 hours.

Later, the people started to fight back. First, they took over and burned down a Basij base, killing its commander. Later, a Basij shot a young man in the face in front of their HQ, at which point a policeman went to confront them. The Basij beat the policeman, at which point students stormed the compound, throwing molotov cocktails, burning it to the ground. This is very big.

Tomorrow (or today as of the 16th of June)

Supporters of Moussavi have a manifestation planned for 5pm, Tehran time. Roughly the same number or more is expected to attend. Plenty of twitter chat about dressing in black.

The pro-Ahmadinejad crowd however are planning a counter-demonstration at the very same place the supporters are supposed to gather at 3pm. Most agree that basically they are simply going to gather for a confrontation. Basij from all over the country are moving to Tehran and supporters are being bused from all over the country.

A major showdown is expected to unfold

The Supreme Leader has also called for a 10-day inquiry into the claims of fraud, but it has been widely dismissed as cosmetic. The Revolution lives on.

Demands from the protesters

1. Dismissal of Khamenei for not being a fair leader
2. Dismissal of Ahmadinejad for his illegal acts
3. Temporary appointment of Ayatollah Montazeri as the Supreme Leader
4. Recognition of Mousavi as the President
5. Forming the Cabinet by Mousavi to prepare for revising the Constitution
6. unconditional and immediate release of all political prisoners
7. Dissolution of all organs of repression, public or secret.

Who is Grand Ayatollah Montazeri?

Ayatollah Montazeri is a pro-Democracy, pro-Human Rights Ayatollah who was at one point on the short list of possible successors of Khomeini, but became marginalized as he adopted what was seen as a too pro-Western, pro-Democracy stance.

Since the beginning of the Revolution, he has been one of the fiercest critics of the Regime, and one of the biggest proponents of women and civil rights for ALL Iranians, including much-maligned minorities like the Baha'is. In fact he goes further than the protections afforded to them under Sharia.

He is also a big critic of Ahmadinejad and has been seen for years as the best hope for Iran if he ever was to come to power, something that was unthinkable a mere week ago.

Big things are afoot.

UPDATE: Lots of reports of gunfire, and a growing internet war with the Iranian government. The gov't is hacking all non-pro-ahmedinejad sites, but the protesters are using twitter to get people to hack the gov't sites. Pretty amazing stuff. The dsiplays of solidarity from around the world are incredibly moving. Will post some images shortly. Titterer "persiankiwi" has made CNN, there's protests all over the globe (New York, LA, Paris, Toronto, Dubai, and many others). this is really happening, folks. It's not every day you get to see a people free themselves from thier oppressors (of course, if your in the US, you won't really notice it all, since NO ONE IS FARKING CARRYING IT!!!) I hate our media.

I'll be posting personal thoughts here:

1. Twitter is politically significant, and 4Chan is helping with the fight? I think hell just froze over.
2. I REALLY hate our media.
3. This is what happens when a people truly care about thier freedom.
4. I wonder if America will ever be at that point again?
5. Inconsequential as it is, I'll never look at the Iranian people the same way again. Seeing a civil war erupt in near real time via twitter and other sites, seeing up to the minute coverage and the inner thoughts that could never get reported on MSM coverage, and seeing pleas for help from real people (not talking pundits) has completely changed my mind.

Keep fighting folks, and stay as safe as you can. You're making history.

5. The following pictures don't look like Kent State, or Tienemen Square. They look like regime change.

This Picasa Web Album has tons of stuff in it;

Absolutely incredible images here: If you want to see the whole story in pictures, go there.


JDTapp said...

ABCJimSciutto is another good source, he's an ABC journalist there. A lot of anger right now on how CNN and Fox have had crappy coverage.

Greatmoose said...

It's frigging ridiculous. There used to be a saying "The Revolution Will Be Televised". Not so much anymore. More like: "The revolution will be twittered, and ignored by the media". Sad day for all of us, because this is REAL news.

JDTapp said...

It's jimscuittoabc I mistyped it.

JDTapp said...

And I'm Kycat1a on there.